This past week, the Republican Party released a list of 47 Democratic members of the House of Representatives that they believe they can defeat in the 2022 midterm elections. Here is the list of representatives:
AZ-01 – Tom O’Halleran
AZ-02 – Ann Kirkpatrick
CA-03 – John Garamendi
CA-10 – Josh Harder
CA-45 – Katie Porter
CA-49 – Mike Levin
CT-05 – Jahana Hayes
FL-07 – Stephanie Murphy
FL-13 – Charlie Crist
GA-06 – Lucy McBath
GA-07 – Carolyn Bourdeaux
IA-03 – Cindy Axne
IL-06 – Sean Casten
IL-14 – Lauren Underwood
IL-17 – Cheri Bustos
KS-03 – Sharice Davids
ME-02 – Jared Golden
MI-08 – Elissa Slotkin
MI-11 – Haley Stevens
MN-02 – Angie Craig
MN-03 – Dean Phillips
NC-02 – Deborah K. Ross
NH-01 – Chris Pappas
NJ-03 – Andy Kim
NJ-05 – Josh Gottheimer
NJ-07 – Tom Malinowski
NJ-11 – Mikie Sherrill
NV-03 – Susie Lee
NV-04 – Steven Horsford
NY-03 – Tom Suozzi
NY-18 – Sean Patrick Maloney
NY-19 – Antonio Delgado
OH-13 – Tim Ryan
OR-04 – Peter A. DeFazio
OR-05 – Kurt Schrader
PA-07 – Susan Wild
PA-08 – Matt Cartwright
PA-17 – Conor Lamb
TX-07 – Lizzie Fletcher
TX-15 – Vicente Gonzalez
TX-28 – Henry Cuellar
TX-32 – Colin Allred
TX-34 – Filemon Vela
VA-02 – Elaine Luria
VA-07 – Abigail Spanberger
WA-08 – Kim Schrier
WI-03 – Ron Kind
Although my Representative is not on this list, it made me think about all the people who live in these districts that will no doubt be bombarded with political advertisements between now and November 2022. Political ads have accompanied political campaigns from the very start, but I can’t help but feel they have gotten much more intrusive as the years have passed. Every time I hear a smear advertisement spouting exaggerations about an opposing candidate on the radio, or see a full-page ad in the local paper with just the face of the candidate and their slogan, I think to myself: is this really changing anyone’s opinion? With these questions in mind, I decided to look at the data and see if the billions of dollars spent on excess campaign ads really change election results.
After conducting my research, the verdict I came to is that there is little evidence supporting that campaign ads provide any marginal shift in election results. Yes, you read that right. You get bombarded with calls and TV, Radio, and Newspaper ads for very little reason. If you’re like me, you’re probably asking yourself, “Why are billions of dollars being spent on things that will have little effect on the outcome of elections!?”. Well, the experts say that these people and political parties have so much money to spend, that even if the ads have the tiniest influence on election results it’s worth it for them. Statistics from 2012 showed that there are about 800,000 undecided voters in battleground states (Which receive the most ads), and the Democratic and Republican Party both spent about a billion dollars each on marketing these states. That means they spent about $1,000 per persuadable voter! That seems crazy to me, I’d rather they just give me that $1,000 in cash…then I would definitely vote for that candidate! In all seriousness, I think it might be time to take a look at how we run advertising for campaigns in the United States. It seems like there is a lot of money being used for useless means.
By Andrew Kolar
